If you’ve noticed your freight costs climbing or your capacity harder to lock down, you’re not imagining it. The U.S. freight market is going through one of its most unusual cycles in recent memory — and understanding what’s driving it could save your operation real time and money.
We’ve been watching the data closely, and the story is clear: this isn’t the freight market of five years ago. The forces moving freight today are fundamentally different, and the companies that recognize that early are the ones that will come out ahead.
This isn’t a port story anymore
For much of the last decade, freight flowed in through the coasts — goods manufactured overseas, unloaded at ports, and distributed inland. That playbook has flipped. Today’s freight surge is originating from the middle of the country, driven by domestic industrial activity. The ports are relatively quiet. The action is in the heartland.
So what changed? A lot, actually — and most of it is structural, not temporary.
What’s fueling the surge
The single biggest driver right now is AI infrastructure. Data center construction across the U.S. has exploded, and it is moving an enormous amount of freight — steel, aluminum, electrical components, heavy equipment. By some estimates, AI data center-related construction now accounts for roughly 7% of all flatbed market volume. And we’re nowhere near peak build-out. Only about 8% of announced data centers are currently under construction, meaning years of sustained freight demand are still ahead.
Defense spending is another major factor. Recent military operations have drawn down stockpiles significantly, and rebuilding those reserves drives multi-year manufacturing activity and the freight that comes with it.
Petrochemicals are running at record shipment levels, powered by abundant and competitively priced U.S. natural gas. Power infrastructure, pipelines, robotics, and automation are all adding incremental demand. Meanwhile, tariff policy has made domestic steel and aluminum more competitive, pulling sourcing back stateside and generating more domestic freight movement.
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7
consecutive months of spot rate gains through early 2026
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$3.14/mi
Midwest flatbed spot rates — highest in the nation
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+17%
truckload costs projected year-over-year for 2026
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Capacity is tightening fast
It’s not just demand pushing rates up — supply is shrinking too. Carrier attrition has been accelerating for two years. Smaller fleets have exited the market, experienced drivers are aging out faster than new ones are entering, and regulatory requirements continue to tighten. The result is a market where even modest demand increases hit hard.
Flatbed load-to-truck ratios have surged — in some periods climbing above 80 loads per available truck. Diesel has pushed above $5.00 per gallon, which makes carriers more selective about the freight they take. In our home region, the Midwest, conditions are tighter than anywhere else in the country right now.
“The market, it is moving fast right now. We see it every day. The shippers who have good partners, they are okay. The ones scrambling at the last minute — that is where the pain is.”
— Chris Shyti, Co-Founder, RJ Logistics
What this means for your freight
If you’re still approaching freight the way you did in 2023 or 2024, the market has changed around you. Here’s what shippers should be doing right now:
Plan further out. 24-48 hours of lead time on flatbed and specialized freight is no longer enough in tight regions. Build buffer into your shipping schedules wherever possible.
Lock in carrier relationships. Spot procurement is getting expensive and unpredictable. Companies with established broker partnerships and contracted carrier access are insulated from the worst of the volatility.
Review your routing guide. With rates rising 16-17% year-over-year in truckload, undisciplined procurement is costing real money. A reviewed and tightened routing guide pays for itself quickly in this environment.
“We tell our customers — don’t wait for a problem to call us. We watch this market every day. We know where capacity is, we know where it is going. That is what we are here for.”
— Chris Shyti, Co-Founder, RJ Logistics
The RJ take
We’ve been in this business since 2008 and we’ve seen multiple freight cycles. This one is different because the underlying demand isn’t consumer-driven — it’s industrial, long-cycle infrastructure investment. That means the tightness isn’t going away after a quarter or two. Data center construction alone has a decade-long runway. Defense replenishment doesn’t happen overnight. These are durable freight drivers.
Our team is actively building carrier capacity in the lanes and freight types most affected — flatbed, heavy haul, and specialized equipment. If your shipments involve steel, heavy equipment, construction materials, or anything requiring open-deck transport, we’d encourage you to have a proactive conversation with us now rather than reactively once capacity dries up in your lanes.
The freight market rewards the prepared. Let’s make sure you’re one of them.
Ready to talk about your freight strategy? Reach out to our team at RJLogistics.com
