Late February signal check
As we moved from the last full week of February into early March 2026, several independent indicators began telling a consistent story: spot pricing is strengthening, and available capacity is becoming harder to find, especially for open-deck. In the latest weekly update using broker-posted rates from Truckstop.com and analysis from FTR Transportation Intelligence, spot market conditions remained quite elevated in the week ending 27 February (week 8), with flatbed and dry van rates moving higher while refrigerated rates posted only a small decline.
That weekly picture is reinforced by the February 2026 release of the Logistics Managers’ Index (released 3 March 2026), which shows transportation capacity contracting at a 41.0 reading and transportation prices accelerating to 76.7, its highest level since March 2022. While the LMI is a diffusion index (sentiment-based rather than transactional), the direction of travel matters: capacity perceptions are tightening at the same time pricing perceptions are heating up, a combination that tends to coincide with higher service risk and rising procurement pressure.
Flatbed is leading the tightening story
In the newest open-deck reporting from DAT Freight & Analytics, national flatbed linehaul spot rates have risen for four consecutive weeks, reaching $2.26 per mile last week (+$0.02 week over week). That level is described as notably strong, sitting $0.29 per mile (15%) above the same period last year and also above both 2018 levels and a five-year average (excluding pandemic-distorted years). At the same time, DAT reports flatbed load post volumes around 1.23 million loads, almost 50% higher year over year, with equipment posts down 5%, pushing the flatbed load-to-truck ratio up 5% to 59.0.
There are also real economy demand signals that matter disproportionately for flatbed. Global steel output trends are mixed overall, but the World Steel Association estimates the United States produced 7.1 million tonnes of crude steel in January 2026, up 3.3% year over year. On a weekly basis, reporting on American Iron and Steel Institute figures shows US raw steel production year to date through 28 February 2026 running 5.0% above the same period last year. This matters because even modest improvements in heavy industry tend to amplify flatbed’s sensitivity to capacity. Steel, metals, machinery, and project freight do not flex into vans easily.
Dry van and reefer are strong year over year, but with more noise
Across modes, the spot market remains heavily shaped by winter disruption patterns and the after-effects of those disruptions. In the week ending 7 February, FTR and Truckstop data showed dry van and refrigerated spot rates easing from a prior weather-induced surge, but still very strong versus the same week in 2025. Dry van spot rates were nearly 19% higher year over year, and refrigerated rates about 25% higher year over year despite a week over week decline.
Reefer in particular can look contradictory week to week because winter conditions can temporarily shift demand across equipment types. In its February 2026 market update, C.H. Robinson notes that prolonged, widespread cold weather can force freight that would typically move in dry vans, for example beverages, into temperature-controlled equipment to prevent freezing. This layers incremental demand onto an already constrained refrigerated fleet and increases volatility. This helps explain why you can see softer weekly reefer pricing alongside an overall narrative of tightening capacity. The market is not moving as a single national curve; it is rotating by region, weather, and which shippers can flex mode and timing.
Routing guides and tender friction are the operational tell
The most important practical question for shippers is not whether the market is up or down, but whether planned capacity is still behaving like planned capacity. The LMI report highlights that transportation capacity tightening is especially driven by larger firms, with large respondents (1,000+ employees) reporting a 32.6 reading, its fastest rate of contraction in five years. When large networks feel tightness first, it often shows up as more exceptions: deeper waterfalls, higher rejection sensitivity on underpriced lanes, and more exposure to spot coverage. Supporting that, C.H. Robinson’s contract environment metrics show route guide depth across all North America shipments at 1.35 in January 2026, higher than the prior month, with long hauls (600+ miles) at 1.54, worse than both December 2025 (1.50) and January 2025 (1.37).
Conceptually, this aligns with DAT’s guidance on tender behavior: rising rejections tend to precede rate pressure, and weak routing guides are often an early sign that a market shift is about to become a service problem, not just a budget line item.
What to watch as the market turns into March
The next few weeks should clarify whether late February firmness is largely seasonal or weather related, or a more durable tightening phase. ACT Research frames early 2026 as an inflection point, arguing that spot strength and accelerating capacity contraction are reshaping market balance faster than many expected, with limited fleet expansion and operating authority declines reducing excess supply. From a planning standpoint, the most decision useful signals are weekly flatbed load-to-truck ratios and linehaul rate direction, routing guide depth and tender acceptance, and broader transportation capacity and price sentiment.
Our commitment to a steady shipper experience
In a market where capacity can tighten quickly and volatility can move from a data point to a service failure in days, our goal is to deliver consistently positive customer experiences through clear communication, disciplined execution, and practical guidance, so our customers can navigate uncertainty with confidence and stay positioned for success.
References
[1] [4] [15] North America Truckload Freight Market Update | C.H. Robinson
https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/feb-2026-freight-market-update/na-truckload/
[2] [10] [13] FTR, Truckstop: Spot rates remain strong in latest week – TheTrucker.com
https://www.thetrucker.com/trucking-news/business/ftr-truckstop-spot-rates-remain-strong-in-latest-week
[3] [16] State of Freight Today
https://www.ftrintel.com/state-of-freight-today
[5] [7] [14] [19] February 2026 Logistics Managers’ Index – Logistics Managers’ Index
https://www.the-lmi.com/february-2026-logistics-managers-index.html
[6] [8] [12] [21] Flatbed report: Steel output rises to start 2026, signaling firmer flatbed freight demand – DAT Freight & Analytics – Blog
https://www.dat.com/blog/flatbed-report-steel-output-rises-to-start-2026-signaling-firmer-flatbed-freight-demand
[9] January 2026 crude steel production – worldsteel.org
https://worldsteel.org/media/press-releases/2026/january-2026-crude-steel-production/
[11] AISI: Weekly raw steel mill output remains strong – Steel Market Update
https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2026/03/02/aisi-weekly-raw-steel-mill-output-remains-strong/
[17] [18] The 5 weekly signals every freight leader should watch – DAT Freight & Analytics – Blog
https://www.dat.com/blog/the-5-weekly-signals-every-freight-leader-should-watch
[20] Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026 | ACT Research
https://www.actresearch.net/resources/blog/trucking-industry-forecast-for-2026/
